Could a Global Fertiliser Crisis Trigger the Next Food Price Shock?

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has described the situation not as a temporary shipping issue, but the beginning of a potential “systemic agri-food shock”. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly collapsing by more than 90% since conflict intensified earlier this year, pressure is building across global energy, fertiliser and commodity markets.

For arable farmers already navigating volatile input costs, climate uncertainty and tightening margins, the developments are a stark reminder of the importance of resilience, efficiency and long-term planning.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical trade routes, particularly for energy and fertiliser products. Restrictions and military blockades imposed around the region are now threatening the movement of key agricultural inputs, with experts warning the consequences could ripple throughout the global food system.

According to FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero, governments and industry leaders need to act quickly to increase resilience and minimise the impact of potential disruption. Fertiliser availability, transport costs, commodity pricing and food inflation are all expected to come under increasing pressure if the situation continues.

Alternative trade routes, protection of humanitarian supply chains and intervention from governments and financial organisations are now being discussed as part of wider contingency planning. But for many within agriculture, the concern is immediate: what happens if fertiliser becomes harder to source, or significantly more expensive, ahead of next season?

The European Commission has already responded with the launch of its new Fertiliser Action Plan, designed to support farmers facing rising prices and supply instability. The initiative aims to strengthen domestic fertiliser production, reduce dependency on imports and support the transition towards bio-based and low-carbon alternatives.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the strategy as a way to deliver “sustainability, affordability and industrial strength” to European agriculture, while European Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Christophe Hansen stated clearly that “food security starts with fertiliser security”.

The package is expected to provide short-term financial support for farmers ahead of the next production cycle, while also investing in longer-term resilience through innovation and domestic manufacturing capacity. However, industry leaders have questioned whether the measures will arrive quickly enough to offset mounting pressure from global instability and rising energy costs.

For UK growers, the situation underlines the importance of strategic nutrient management and forward planning. Over the last few seasons, many farmers have already adapted fertiliser strategies in response to volatility, focusing more closely on soil health, efficiency and targeted application. But if global disruption intensifies, these approaches may become essential rather than optional.

The growing conversation around bio-based fertilisers, precision nutrient application and regenerative practices is therefore likely to accelerate further. Technologies that improve nutrient use efficiency, reduce dependency on imported inputs and build long-term resilience are rapidly moving from “future concepts” into practical business priorities.

How can we support?

This is why events such as CropTec 2026 are becoming increasingly important for the arable sector. As growers face unprecedented uncertainty around inputs, climate and global markets, access to practical advice, emerging technology and industry expertise has never been more valuable.

Taking place on 20–21 January 2026 at the NEC Birmingham alongside LAMMA and Low Carbon Agriculture, CropTec will bring together leading voices from across agronomy, crop science, sustainability and policy to explore the future of resilient farming systems.